PP weekly review of the hottest economic crisis sp

2022-09-21
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[PP weekly review] economic crisis spread PP warehouse receipts fell sharply

I. this week's market (October 13 to October 17):

oil price fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since August 2007. The world economic crisis spread, and external bad conditions restricted the market trend of PP warehouse receipts this week. The settlement price fell sharply and the trading volume was depressed. As of Friday's close, the PP warehouse receipt index closed at 919.89, down 113.84 points from last Friday. The settlement prices of various varieties of PP warehouse receipts continue to fall this week, taking into account that the shrinkage rate of plastics is greater than that of metals

on Monday, the price of Xinde oil futures market of the former Jinan testing machine factory of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to a 13 month low, due to the increasing threat of the financial crisis to global oil demand. The decline of China Plastics PP warehouse receipts remained unabated, and almost all categories fell by the limit. The PP warehouse receipts fell by the limit at the beginning of trading, and then rose slightly to the end of trading, and the index closed at 1004.83. On Tuesday, the futures rose on Monday, which was the first time that crude oil futures rose in four trading days, indicating that the optimism of the stock market is a good omen for the demand of the crude oil market. China Plastics PP warehouse receipts fell slightly, and a few 100 equipment of all categories could increase the company's daily output to 1 ton, or almost all of them fell by the limit. PP warehouse receipts opened high and went low, and surged sharply in the early stage. After that, the disk repression accelerated and fell back, and the end of the day index closed at 1004.44. Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday, as the market expected weak demand for months, even though the U.S. government succeeded in avoiding an intensification of the economic downturn. China Plastics PP warehouse receipts continued to fall sharply, all categories fell by the limit, PP warehouse receipts opened sharply lower, and the end of the day index closed at 975.23 points. On Thursday, crude oil futures continued to fall sharply, the impact of the financial crisis continued to spread, and the international futures market fell. China Plastics PP warehouse receipts continued to fall sharply, all varieties fell by the limit, PP warehouse receipts opened sharply lower, and the end of the day index closed at 948.35 points. On Friday, the settlement price of monthly light and low sulfur crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.69 to $69.85 a barrel, down 6.3%. Crude oil futures have fallen 52% from the record high settlement price in July, but the current oil price is nearly $20 from the 2007 low of $49.90 a barrel. China Plastics PP warehouse receipts continued to fall sharply, all categories fell by the limit, PP warehouse receipts opened sharply lower, and the end of the day index closed at 919.89 points

the average trading volume on Sunday was 2102 tons, a decrease of 1486 tons compared with last week; The order volume on Friday was 4680 batches, 324 fewer than that at the end of last week

the transaction details of a week are as follows:

warehouse receipt variety

settlement price (yuan/ton)

PP warehouse receipts are traded this Sunday (ton)

you still don't get any benefit from overwork. PP warehouse receipt order quantity (batch)

this weekend

last weekend

rise and fall

this week

last week

increase and decrease

this week

last week

increase and decrease

pp0812

8543

9636

1093 ↓

2102

3588

1486 ↓

4680

5004

324 ↓

pp0901

8629

9681

1052 ↓

comprehensive analysis:

the weekly K-line chart of PP index closed at the Long Yin line this week, The 5-day moving average continued to decline and was reorganized above the physical center of gravity. The K-line chart of the index day closed with four positive and one negative, and the disk showed an accelerated downward trend. To the end of the week, the K line receives the short Yang line; MACD indicator shows the downward trend of low-level bulls, and the green column continues to enlarge; KDJ index runs at a low level, subject to oversold areas; On the K-line of the day, the BOL index was observed, and the opening was enlarged. The late trading entity swam under the price line, and the price line went flat

the settlement price of crude oil futures on Thursday fell below $70 a barrel for the first time since August 2007, mainly because U.S. demand hit a nine-year low. The settlement price of November light and low sulfur crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.69 to $69.85 a barrel, down 6.3%. Crude oil futures have fallen 52% from the record high settlement price in July, but the current oil price is nearly $20 from the 2007 low of $49.90 a barrel. A government report on U.S. oil demand led to a sharp fall in oil prices. The report showed that in the four weeks ended October 10, U.S. oil demand fell to the lowest level since June 1999, while crude oil and gasoline inventories increased significantly. The decline in U.S. oil demand has continued for several months, but the decline in the past three weeks has increased significantly from the same period last year. The intensification of the decline has raised concerns that tight credit is limiting activity in the broader economy, which could lead to a global recession. By Friday's close, WTI closed at $69.85/barrel, down $16.74 from last Friday, and Brent fell $16.34 to close at $66.32/barrel. PP fell wildly in this period, with a weekly decline of more than 1000 yuan! Traders sold out madly, and the low price record was frequently refreshed. After the offer of general drawing materials fell below the 10000 yuan mark, it was about to hit 9000 yuan! At present, the global economic situation is not optimistic, the rescue plan is also controversial, and there are still concerns that the economic environment will continue to deteriorate. From a fundamental point of view, the petrochemical inventory is still on the high side as a whole. Although the petrochemical industry continues to flop at substantially low prices, agents still believe that there are risks in a large number of purchases; Middlemen generally wait and see in short positions, and there are few operators; The downstream is mainly on-demand purchasing, and the bearish mentality is firm. Warehouse receipts and futures markets have experienced a black week, falling by the limit in a row, which has dealt a huge blow to market confidence

it is expected that the PP warehouse receipt market of Sinochem will continue to experience shock and decline next week

(personal view, for reference only; enter the market accordingly, at your own risk)

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